Tariff Playbook 2025 for eCommerce

The 2025 tariffs are here and eCommerce brands feel the pain already. Import duties now range from 10% on almost everything to a jaw-dropping 145% on Chinese goods. Shortly this:

• 10% base tariffs on most imported goods

• 25% tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada unless USMCA-exempt

• Up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly electronics, apparel, and low-value shipments

• De minimis loophole eliminated: Starting May 2, a $100 fee applies to all sub-$800 shipments; rising to $200 by June 1

Some tariffs were paused for 90 days (ending July 8) to allow for renegotiations, but China is excluded from the pause and remains under full tariffs.

So what to do with all that? And how will other brands survive?

✅ 1. Run a Full Landed Cost Audit

Know the real, all-in cost per SKU including:

• Base cost of goods

• Tariffs (based on updated HS codes)

• Shipping + new postal surcharges

Use these sources to fetch actual tariffs:
https://trumptradetracker.com/ - simple source of tariff news
https://dataweb.usitc.gov/ - tariff database
https://hts.usitc.gov/ - tariff schedule

✅ 2. Reassess Your Supplier Mix

Map your current suppliers by:

• Country of origin

• Tariff % applied

• USMCA/FTA eligibility

Then:

• Ask current suppliers about alternate origin options or service invoice restructuring

• Consider dual sourcing to stay flexible

• Consider shifting high-tariff SKUs to Mexico, India, or ASEAN if feasible. This Tariff simulator shows where likely the suplly chain will shift in different industries.

✅ 3. Review HS Codes and Classifications

Your tariff rate depends on how your product is classified.
Reclassify products if possible (legally!) — e.g., “synthetic apparel” might carry higher duties than “cotton T-shirts.”

✅ 4. Negotiate supplier terms

• Split invoices legally into product + service fees to reduce taxable import value. E.g. $10 product + $30 Consulting/Design fees

✅ 5. Prepare for DDP and Customs Prepayment

Start shipping DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) to reduce cart abandonment.
Customers don’t want surprise fees — and neither do your CS teams.

✅ 6. Optimize for Duty Drawbacks and FTZs

If you re-export or destroy inventory, you might be eligible to get up to 99% of duties back.
If you're warehousing imports, consider using Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) to delay paying duties until goods are sold.

It’s not over yet, there are plenty of scenarios:

🔁 Scenario 1: Partial Rollback (best-case)

• Trump strikes deals with some allies, reducing tariffs on strategic goods

• Tariffs on China drop to ~25-50% on some categories

• De minimis is returned

• Merchants get relief on high-volume SKUs and stabilize pricing

⚠️ Scenario 2: Negotiation Stalemate

• No deals are made by July 8

• Full tariffs return (10-25% globally, 145% on China)

• Recession risk increases due to price shocks and weakened demand

💥 Scenario 3: Escalation

• China retaliates with its own duties

• U.S. applies blanket tariffs (25-50%) on all imports

• Deep disruption across supply chains, margins collapse

🕊 Scenario 4: Superficial Deal

• Political optics lead to a "deal" with no real rollback

• Markets stabilize temporarily, but long-term costs remain high

How to Benefit from the Tariff Era

💸 Acquire distressed brands
Buy out struggling DTC brands that can't handle cost spikes. Restructure sourcing, relaunch with better ops.

🛠 Build nearshoring solutions
Create a plug-and-play agency or SaaS to help brands shift to Mexico/LatAm suppliers quickly.

🚛 Launch logistics tools
Make customs-friendly DDP, FTZ, or landed-cost calculators and offer them to brands as a service.

📈 Create a tariff-safe marketplace
Curate and promote products sourced from low-tariff regions. Offer guaranteed duty-included prices.

📦 Automate the boring but profitable
Tools for HS code auditing, duty refunds, and smart invoice splitting will save 5-15% on margins instantly.

📍 Winners in Local Markets

U.S.-based merchants selling U.S.-made products gain from increased certainty and stable domestic logistics. However, these same brands may struggle with competitiveness abroad due to retaliatory tariffs or higher international shipping costs.
Meanwhile, Canada-, UK-, and EU-based merchants are expected to benefit from increased domestic sales. Local consumers will lean toward regionally-made products to avoid tariff-related markups, making "Made Local" a strong value prop in 2025.
See the effect of deglobalization

Side‑note from DC: Trump just smacked the big red “pause” button— most of the new tariffs are on hold for 90 days, but China still eats a fat 125 %+ bill. Until they figure it out with Trump. We don’t know how it will end up, as they are still in the negotiating process. We are watching the craziest thriller for eCom merchants we could imagine in 2025… Let’s stay tuned