Trump Killing eCommerce? Tariffs & TikTok

Hey 👋

It’s been rough for eCom brands ever since Trump got re-elected..

Tariffs, the “de minimis” loophole now being closed, TikTok actually getting removed from the Google Play & App Store, and the platform’s ban being extended by 75 days? 💀 

In today’s post, we’ll cover the turbulence of Trump’s tariffs & regulations, how they impact e-commerce, what’s happened to TikTok, what we think will happen next, and what you can do about all of this 🤔

Let’s get into it 🔥

1. Tariffs & De Minimis 👋 

One of the first things Trump promised to do when he would be president again is bring back tariffs — and he sure is bringing them back. As of now, Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada & Mexico, and a steep 10% on imports from China.

This means prices will rise on practically everything — cars, gas, food, steel, fuel, since Canada, Mexico & China supply these essential resources to the US. PIIE just yesterday published a chart, showing that tariffs would cost a household $1,200 a year in tax increase.

Taylor Holiday had a great take on tariffs & what comes next:

For us merchants especially though, that tariff on China is really rough. And there’s another thing Trump wants to do, and it’s a lot worse than just a 10% tariff.

You probably didn’t even need to guess it. De minimis — the loophole used by every merchant and reseller who deals with goods from China, especially giants like Temu, Shein, AliExpress and the sorts.

This was a rule that allowed small packages under $800 to be exempt from tariffs. Just for reference — In the first 9 months of 2024 alone, $48 billion worth of goods entered the U.S. under this exemption.

It seems Trump found it unfair that Chinese manufacturers were raking in this much compared to the American folk, he wants to “level the playing field”, and so he is eliminating this exemption.

For merchants, this means if you previously worked with China to avoid customs fees, you have to look for alternative suppliers — which is easier said than done, because nobody beats China in terms of low production costs. Also, prices for smaller packages will on average be higher for customers than before

Props to Trump for trying to make things fair, but this just hurts merchants and customers more than does us good, don’t you think? 😢 

But tariffs aren’t the only thing Trump’s targeting China with.. let’s move on to the TikTok drama.

P.S. — Want to use Reddit to grow your brand? Check out our Merchant’s Guide to Reddit in case you missed it 👀

2. The Current TikTok Drama 🙃 

Let’s go over the history of TikTok’s ban to understand this mess a bit better:

In April 2024, Biden signed a bill forcing ByteDance, to sell their stakes — and if they don’t, it’ll be banned in the US. Then, TikTok said they’re not selling, with a deadline for the ban being January 19th.

And just after that, the billionaires began to speak. Frank McCourt was one of the first looking to outright buy TikTok for $20 billion USD. Since that statement, Trump has been officially re-elected — and with that, he gave TikTok’s ban a 75-day extension.

As of now, neither the Google Play Store, nor the App Store have TikTok available for download because of U.S legal regulations, but those who still have it can still use it.

Well, this 75-day period put everyone on edge. Brand owners, merchants, billionaires, people who make their livelihoods thanks to the app, and the people that just use it everyday.

Luckily, we live in a time where there are people fighting with eachother to buy TikTok right now. This includes Elon Musk, MrBeast, Larry Ellison (CEO of Oracle), Frank McCourt, Perplexity AI, Steven Mnuchin and more.

Trump stated he’s open to Musk buying TikTok if he wants to do so, giving a green flag probably not just to him, but also to anyone with the power to buy it outright.

But, as it stands right now, we can’t do much else other than sit and wait for someone wealthy enough to purchase TikTok entirely, or for the platform to get banned or restricted in one way, or another.

Let’s now cover the most probable things that can happen to TikTok — not all of them are bad, in fact! 😁 

Stay tuned for more exciting updates from Ecommerce & Unicorns! Subscribe now:

3. The Future of TikTok 📦️ 

So what’s in it for TikTok? Seeing the image below when you try to see your TikTok Shop revenue in March isn’t the only outcome, luckily..

There are four things that can happen to it:

1️⃣ Potential Buyout — with the tens of billionaires grouping together and even fighting each other for a chance to buy TikTok, we could expect one of them to own it eventually.

If a buyout happens, however, it could stabilize the platform, or introduce new challenges for us, merchants, and everyone else, who knows what these billionaires have in mind..

2️⃣ Regulatory Changes — if TikTok does survive, it’ll face some regulations. Stricter age regulation to use the app, being forced to store data locally in the U.S, maybe they’ll even have to share how their “addictive” algorithm works?

We can’t rule out GDPR or new U.S laws limiting TikTok’s ability to monetize user data for targeted ads, either. Of course, we won’t know how TikTok will change until it does.

3️⃣ Alternatives? — with all of these events, many TikTok alternatives are releasing, and existing options are stepping up their game.

Bluesky being one of the bigger ones, Elon’s X creating a video feed to outright replace TikTok in the event of a ban, YouTube Shorts already being widely successful might see more traction and budget from brands, same goes for Reels.

4️⃣ TikTok Gets Banned — if the platform does get a nation-wide ban, traffic and eyes will move to another, or multiple different, mediums. Be it any of the alternatives we went over, people won’t just flat out stop consuming content.

Even though the future’s uncertain, we should be happy we can diversify as brands, to never really be at a huge loss.

Okay, let’s finally cover what we can do as merchants about these completely out of our control events.. 🙏 

P.S. — Check out our Chargebacks Guide if you want to learn how to win chargeback cases and prevent them altogether. We all hate chargebacks, don’t we? 😭

4. So What Can We Do About Tariffs? 🤔 

Unfortunately, they’re here to stay for at least 4 years, throughout all of Trump’s presidency & there certainly will be more that impact us as merchants directly or indirectly.

Here’s what we can do about the tariffs imposed on us right now:

🔷 Diversify Your Supply Chain

We can’t rely on China alone anymore. Explore alternative manufacturing hubs like Vietnam, Taiwan, and India. Of course, these regions can’t compete with China’s low costs, but they can help avoid steep tariffs and reduce dependency on one source or manufacturer (but only for now they are an option — we’ll touch on that matter at the end of this post).

It can also help to find a domestic supplier, even though it may be more expensive, you’ll avoid the tariffs altogether. “Made in USA” can also be a great USP to the right customers.

How cool would it be if we saw this “Made in USA” logo on products other than jeans? 😂

🔷 Free Trade Agreements

Look into the FTAs the US has with other countries — sourcing from countries with favourable trade agreements (like those in the USMCA) can help reduce tariffs and may be a good middle ground between finding a domestic supplier or switching to a different manufacturing hub.

🔷 Competitive Pricing

With tariffs increasing the prices, you may need to absorb some of the costs to stay competitive. It’d help if you’d be transparent with your customers, making it clear that it isn’t by your brands will that the prices are rising.

One way to workaround the tariffs increasing cost of goods is just giving more value for that price, like a bonus freebie.

We also recommend you closely monitor the current and constantly changing tariffs imposed by Trump on sites like ArentFox & TrumpTradeTracker, as we’ve found these two are updated constantly.

That’s about all we can do for tariffs, but what about TikTok? How can we make our brands not rely on the platform and still thrive, regardless of whether it’ll stay or go?

Let’s cover that in more detail 🔥 

5. What If TikTok Gets Banned? 🚫 

The thing is, TikTok is currently one of the best marketing channels eCom & DTC has seen since paid ads, but with how things stand, we have to focus on TikTok-proofing our brands, so that they are safe no matter what happens to the platform.

Here are the optimal ways to do so:

🔻 Expand Your Ad Channels

Experiment with spreading marketing budget evenly across channels like X, YouTube Shorts & Shop, Instagram Reels, and of course, TikTok and TikTok Shop haven’t gone anywhere yet, so keep the bulk of your ads on it while it lasts.

🔻 Invest In Owned Channels

Think about options like starting a branded mobile app. This route can give a good boost to retention and sales, with big examples being Sephora & Macy’s.

Another huge channel lots of eCom brands are sleeping on as of late is email — a well-written campaign can make your brand lots of money, and it’s something you can fully control.

🔻 New Revenue Streams

One of these new revenue streams can be offline engagement — if you have solid presence within your market, hundreds of people can come to a pop-up event.

Even simply giving a small discount to anyone who comes to a physical store of yours can greatly increase both goodwill, and more people will recommend your brand through word of mouth.

Another big one to mention is affiliate marketing — partnering with influencers and affiliates can help you reach new audiences without relying on paid ads on platforms like TikTok & Meta.

🔻 A Pivot To Long-Term Investment

Focus on building long-term relationships with everyone you interact with — that means constantly launching campaigns with influencers and affiliates, giving back to your customers so that your brand stays at the top of their mind, and increasing your presence across as many channels as you can, for a very long time.

For a lot of us breaking even as brand owners this can be tough, but diversifying is as expensive as it is worthwhile, and now we have to focus on it more than ever.

But while we can diversify all we want in both marketing & logistics, we are dealing with a new president now..

We should also put some effort into thinking about what’s most likely to happen, and we’ve done some of that for you 🔥 

6. What To Expect From Trump 👱

TikTok & tariffs aren’t the end, there’ll be more strict regulations and changes to come for sure.

Here’s what’s likely coming next for eCom & DTC, and what you can start doing right now to mitigate any future losses your brand may suffer:

1️⃣ “Phase 2” Tariffs on Smaller Markets

China may be the big target right now, but Trump has already hinted at cracking down on “transshipment” hubs like Vietnam, India and Thailand.

This is mainly because factories in these countries more often than not use Chinese materials to dodge tariffs — you should expect surprise audits, stricter rules and new tariffs on these regions by late 2025.

As for what you can do right now:

🟢 Audit Your Suppliers — ask for full material breakdowns (not just “made in Vietnam”, for example)

🟢 Pre-negotiate tariff clauses in contracts — shift the cost burdens to suppliers if new tariffs hit

🟢 Stockpile inventory — just in case, and only if you rely on Southeast Asia

Because, at the end of the day, in Trump’s very own “wise” words:

2️⃣ Crackdowns on “Foreign Spies”

The TikTok ban may as well be just the start — we can safely assume that Trump is going for any app, platform, and even supplier that counts as a “foreign adversary”, the most logical things we can do are to:

🟢 Ditch Foreign-linked Suppliers — those who have ties to Temu, Shein, AliExpress and platforms of that nature

🟢 Ask Your Suppliers for Claims — specifically claims of “no ties to China”, if they can provide

🟢 Use Allied Tech — that means EU & US-made technology when it comes to payment processing and anything else to do with your brand

And that’s that. We covered the current state of tariffs, the drama surrounding the TikTok ban, the platform’s future, actionable advice on what we can do about tariffs and TikTok, and, finally, what we think Trump might do next.

This’ll be quite the year for eCom & DTC, merchants. Stay strong 🤝

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Daniil from ECORN